How the Delay Risk Outlook works

When an outlook is available, Trip Conductor estimates one number: the chance that the flight arrives 60 minutes or more late, is diverted, or is cancelled. We call this a major delay. The Delay Risk Outlook shows that chance as a percent, places it in a band, and compares it with a typical flight.

1. What the percent means

The outlook uses language such as “18% chance of a major delay.” A major delay means the flight is cancelled, diverted, or at least 60 minutes late. We also show the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late and the chance of cancellation. All delay odds are measured at arrival; a late departure that makes up time in the air does not count.

The percent is an estimate, not a promise. It updates as departure gets closer and new information comes in.

2. Low, Elevated and High

More than a day before departure, the bands are:

• Low: under about 11% for a US flight, or under about 11% for a non-US flight.
• Elevated: from about 11% to just under 18% for a US flight, or from about 11% to just under 20% for a non-US flight.
• High: 18% or more for a US flight, or 20% or more for a non-US flight.

We set these lines from years of flight records, where flights really do run into trouble more often. A flight is only Elevated if its chance is also at least 15% higher than the average flight’s, so an ordinary flight is never flagged.

The High line moves closer to departure, because the picture is clearer by then. For a US flight, from about four hours before departure, High starts between about 21% and 26%, depending on how close departure is. For a non-US flight, in the last day before departure, High starts at about 18%. The Elevated line stays the same.

Once something is actually happening, the band follows the facts rather than the forecast. A flight running 15 to 59 minutes late is Elevated, and one running 60 minutes or more late is High. When there is trouble at an airport and we have no outlook for the flight, the band comes from the airport: High if flights are temporarily held on the ground, the airport is closed, or its delays run an hour or more, and Elevated otherwise. Once a flight is cancelled, in the air or has landed, we show its status instead of a band.

3. Compared with a typical flight

Next to each percent we show how it compares with a typical flight, for example “Above the typical 6% for a non-US flight.” The typical flight is a standard flight in the same group, US flights or non-US flights, with average features, looked at the same length of time before departure. We compare the whole percents you see, so 7% against a typical 6% reads “Above”, and 6% against 6% reads “At”.

If we have no typical figure for a flight, we compare it with the average for all flights in its group and say “average” instead of “typical”. The band does not depend on this comparison: a Low flight can still be above typical.

We also show the range most flights fall into, where 8 in 10 flights sit, as a separate fact.

4. What goes into the number

The outlook combines:

• Flight history: how this flight and similar flights have run in the past.
• The route and the airports at each end.
• The date and time: time of day, day of the week, and time of year.
• The airline’s own record for delays and cancellations.
• Weather at both airports: the latest forecasts, current conditions as departure nears, and warnings of severe storms.
• For US flights in the last few hours before departure, whether the aircraft operating the flight is running late on its previous flight, when we can identify it.
• How much time the aircraft is scheduled to have on the ground between its previous flight and this one, when that information is available.

Each of these is measured on its own and the chance combines them, so the same storm counts for more on a flight that is already likely to run late. How much a particular airline is affected by weather is not yet part of the number.

Confirmed disruptions at either airport, such as closures, flights temporarily held on the ground, announced strikes, and other confirmed advisories, can raise the displayed estimate using predefined rules. These adjustments are separate from the measured forecast; the AI explains the result.

The US outlook is built from 36.5 million US flights from January 2021 through May 2026 and is refit as new government data is published. International outlooks are not generally available. There’s also a separate outlook model for international flights, trained on non-US data. The non-US model is trained on non-US flights we tracked, Sep 2025–Apr 2026. Earlier international outlooks use the US model adjusted for non-US flights. The chance of a major delay is compared with a typical US or non-US flight: the flight our model starts from before this flight's own factors are added. When an older outlook has no typical flight, we compare with the average for all US or non-US flights and say "average" instead. The chances of cancellation and of arriving 15+ minutes late are compared only with their own averages.

5. The other odds we show

Below the main percent we show two more chances, each next to the average (“avg”) for similar flights:

• the chance the flight is cancelled; and
• the chance it arrives 15 minutes or more late, is diverted, or is cancelled.

From our analysis of 36.5 million US flights, the most recent year shows how often flights arrived 15 minutes or more late, or were diverted or cancelled:

How accurate the US outlook is

We set aside the most recent year of US flights, July 2025 through May 2026, and test a model that never saw them. Given one flight that ended up 15 minutes or more late, diverted or cancelled, and one that arrived on time, the model gave the higher chance to the late flight 68% of the time seven days out, 70% of the time within 24 hours, and 81% of the time within an hour of departure. Guessing would get 50%. The model we use was then updated with the whole 2021–2026 period, using the same information.

6. When there is no outlook

Sometimes we cannot give a percent yet, and the flight shows “Outlook unavailable”. This happens when we cannot find the flight in live flight data, when we have not yet confirmed its route, when the outlook is not issued yet because departure is still some way off, or when there is not enough flight history to estimate it. We never show 0% or Low in its place.

7. What the AI does

Our AI writes the plain-English explanation you can forward to the traveler. It explains the number; it never sets the number or the band. The percent and the band always come from the outlook described above, and the facts behind them are shown next to any AI text.

8. What we do not do

• We do not book or rebook travel.
• Any alternative flights shown are informational and must be confirmed with the airline or travel provider.
• Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees of what will happen.
• The US accuracy figures above do not describe international outlooks.

9. Data sources

We use live flight status, official aviation weather, and US government on-time records. Live status checks become more frequent as departure approaches, when changes matter most. Weather is generally refreshed about hourly. Flight history is refreshed as new government data is published.

10. Questions

Questions about how the outlook works? Email us at contact@tripconductor.ai.